Isaac Asimov predicted reading ebooks on an iPhone

[pdurrant]

In 1964, Isaac Asimov wrote an article in the New York Times with predictions about 2014.

He got a remarkable number of things right, including predicting the iPhone and its use for reading as well as communicating:

"Communications will become sight-sound and you will see as well as hear the person you telephone. The screen can be used not only to see the people you call but also for studying documents and photographs and reading passages from books."

(He got some things wrong as well, but he got the important one right - ebooks!)

[kennyc]

Right again!

[HarryT]

Originally Posted by pdurrant

In 1964, Isaac Asimov wrote an article in the New York Times with predictions about 2014.

He got a remarkable number of things right, including predicting the iPhone and its use for reading as well as communicating:

"Communications will become sight-sound and you will see as well as hear the person you telephone. The screen can be used not only to see the people you call but also for studying documents and photographs and reading passages from books."

(He got some things wrong as well, but he got the important one right - ebooks!)

In Arthur C. Clarke's 1975 novel "Imperial Earth", written before the days of PCs or handheld computing devices, he describes a handheld device which changes the appearance of its controls depending on what function it's being put to - ie a tablet computer.

[kennyc]

Lot's of wrong guesses....polarizing/opaquing windows electronic colored walls etc. but a couple others stick out for me:

Conversations with the moon will be a trifle uncomfortable, but the way, in that 2.5 seconds must elapse between statement and answer (it takes light that long to make the round trip). Similar conversations with Mars will experience a 3.5-minute delay even when Mars is at its closest. However, by 2014, only unmanned ships will have landed on Mars, though a manned expedition will be in the works and in the 2014 Futurama will show a model of an elaborate Martian colony.

and chillingly:

Even so, mankind will suffer badly from the disease of boredom, a disease spreading more widely each year and growing in intensity. This will have serious mental, emotional and sociological consequences, and I dare say that psychiatry will be far and away the most important medical specialty in 2014. ...

[pdurrant]

Boredom's not an option when you have a TBR as long as mine!

[kennyc]

Originally Posted by pdurrant

Boredom's not an option when you have a TBR as long as mine!

Exactly my thought as well.

Time to read. ahhhh!

[5thWiggle]

Originally Posted by kennyc

Lot's of wrong guesses....polarizing/opaquing windows electronic colored walls etc. but a couple others stick out for me:

polarizing/opaquing windows: http://sageglass.com/sageglass/

http://www.smarttint.com/

He did get that one right as well.

[kennyc]

Originally Posted by 5thWiggle

polarizing/opaquing windows: http://sageglass.com/sageglass/

http://www.smarttint.com/

He did get that one right as well.

There's lots of outliers and experiments that yes he matched, but certainly not in everyday use which was the context.

[5thWiggle]

Both are used daily in a number of commercial buildings (including one right next to me), however I do doubt it will get much residential use. Too many people like matching the drapes to the sofa...

ETA: By the way, the self darkening/polarizing glass is used by millions in every day in Transitions eyeglass lenses.

[kennyc]

As I said...

[mrscoach]

There is a glass that I've seen in bathrooms that is either clear or completely frosted at the flick of a switch. With no electricity running through it is clear, but for privacy you can flip the switch on.

[kennyc]

Originally Posted by mrscoach

There is a glass that I've seen in bathrooms that is either clear or completely frosted at the flick of a switch. With no electricity running through it is clear, but for privacy you can flip the switch on.

Interesting! Link? Thanks.

Here's an LCD (electric) version: http://www.prlog.org/11505605-switch...of-switch.html

[jbcohen]

I have always thought that perdicting the future is somewhat like beting on a routlet, place your bets and no one knows which number will come up. Obviously Asimov got lucky at placing his bets.

When I gaze into a crystal ball I tend to rely on statements made by Microsoft and other technology companies about what they are working on. Microsoft has said that they are working on holographic computing, instead of having a monitor of varying sizes the image will be projected in front of you by the CPU and can be any size and/or resolution that you so desire.

[kennyc]

Originally Posted by jbcohen

I have always thought that perdicting the future is somewhat like beting on a routlet, place your bets and no one knows which number will come up. Obviously Asimov got lucky at placing his bets.

.....

Yep, and/or like nostradamus, throw out enough cryptic, confusing, authoritative statements and something is bound to either fit or be 'interpretable' as fitting.

[HarryT]

There have, though, been notable successes. Consider Clarke's famous 1946 paper predicting geostationary communications satellites.