Self-Publishing & Big Five Dominate Book Market...

AnemicOak · 11-19-2015, 07:23 PM

I didn't see this posted yet. May be of interest to some folks...

Self-Publishing & Big Five Dominate Book Market, According to Nielsen

Quote:

Although you can argue Nielsen’s data isn’t complete and it’s therefore far from perfect, it’s one of the few resources available for market trends and analysis. With that in mind, here are the most interesting points I saw in Jonathan’s presentation:

Self-publishing and the Big Five are crowding out everyone else – According to Nielsen’s data, from Q1 2014 to Q1 2015, self-published books have grown from 14% to 18% of the overall market. In that same period the Big Five’s share has grown from 28% to 37%. Meanwhile, the rest of the market — all the large, medium, and tiny publishers — have seen their share decrease from 58% to 45%.

snip

The print/ebook split is now roughly 74%/26%

snip

Price drives ebook interest

snip

Consumer prefer print and ebooks, not or

snip

Amazon dominates subscriptions too

http://www.bookbusinessmag.com/post/...JYNXz0.twitter

fjtorres · 11-19-2015, 09:14 PM

You can see that reflected in the author earnings reports.

http://authorearnings.com/wp-content...unit-sales.png

Just consider that the main reason the big five's share appears to be growing is because they are buying other publishers and their share. However, if you look at the pre-acquisition market shares there is a net decline in the BPH share.

Also, because Nielsen, AAP, and other outfits measure share in dollar terms and BPH prices have long been going up steadily. And not just on the ebook side.
If you look at their recent reports they have stopped reporting mass market paperback sales (after years of reporting constant declines) and are instead reporting "paperback" numbers with slight increases as they reduce the number of books released as mmpb and shift those titles to the more expensive trade paperback format, a form of stealth price hike practiced by tradpubs big and small.

The tradpub side of the business is undergoing consolidation and has been since Bertelsmann bought Doubleday. And it will continue consolidating as the multinationals try to buy market share to prop up their quarterly financial at all costs. The main cost being less unit sales from their side of the industry and more by the smaller, more agile publishers both Indie and tradpub.

There is a war going on in publishing but it's not tradpub vs Indie: it is multinationals versus everybody else, publishers, authors, and readers.

Phogg · 11-20-2015, 12:03 AM

I find it humorous that the big five have to pretend that self publishing is related to them...in order to manufacture an appearance of continuing relevancy.
And that the Authors Guild has buckled under unrelenting mockery and is beginning to denounce portions of the standard big five contracts.
Times are hard.

And the cliff looming down the road? I have talked to genre writers who's greatest wish is to be read. In the not too distant future we will be seeing works left to the public domain when writers die. How many remains to be seen, but I see zip that the legacy publishers can do to stem that tide if it catches on on even a moderate scale.

I don't see the multinationals trying to prop up an obsolete market forever.

HarryT · 11-20-2015, 03:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Phogg

I find it humorous that the big five have to pretend that self publishing is related to them...in order to manufacture an appearance of continuing relevancy.

Traditional publishers are still extremely relevant. I almost never read self-published books simply because the overwhelming majority are complete crap.

Phogg · 11-20-2015, 07:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HarryT

Traditional publishers are still extremely relevant. I almost never read self-published books simply because the overwhelming majority are complete crap.

And there are so many people who also don't read self published works that there isn't a market for those. No, wait...

fjtorres · 11-20-2015, 07:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HarryT

Traditional publishers are still extremely relevant. I almost never read self-published books simply because the overwhelming majority are complete crap.

To each their own.
But with every passing day, there are less and less people that share your view...
...and more and more authors going independent.

Tradpub isn't going to disappear entirely any more than pbooks are. If nothing else, they control too many titles already published. And there are still a lot of smaller, honorable publishers outside the grasp of the BPH cartel. But it is precisely those smaller publishers that are being devoured by the multinationals, and have been since before Indie publishing took over.

As this video animation points out, each of the BPHs came to be by eating up dozens of long standing independent publishers. It isn't just authors they prey upon.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LGds6GdM7C8

All tradpubs are not the same.

And not all indies are, either.

HarryT · 11-20-2015, 08:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Phogg

And there are so many people who also don't read self published works that there isn't a market for those. No, wait...

Did I say that nobody reads self-published works? No, I did not. Please don't misrepresent my statement. I said that I choose not to read self-published books because it's too much hard work to find the few gems amongst the overwhelming flood of garbage. I'd much rather let the publisher find the good books for me, and there is, therefore, still an important role for traditional publishers.

HarryT · 11-20-2015, 08:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fjtorres

To each their own.
But with every passing day, there are less and less people that share your view...
...and more and more authors going independent.

I buy most of my SF and fantasy from Baen, because 20-odd years of buying from them has taught me that the overwhelming majority of what they publish, I'll enjoy, so over since their "Webscription" service started in the late 90s I've bought ever book bundle they've published, and discovered a lot of author who I probably wouldn't otherwise have come across.

How can I equally reliably find new authors that I'll enjoy in the world of self-published books? I just don't have either the time or the inclination to download 50 book samples from Amazon in the hope of finding one reasonable one amongst them.

fjtorres · 11-20-2015, 09:42 AM

I'm also a regular at BAEN but I do check out Indie SF&F titles regularly.
I happen to enjoy superhero fantasy and I've found several good authors mining that territory.

I don't see finding good Indie authors any different than finding good new authors. Period. I haven't found that the path the book takes to market says nothing about the author or the story. A good story is a good story.

What I have found is that Indie SF&F tends to explore further afield than the BPH imprints and do less pigeonhole cookie cutter stuff. Lots of quirky takes on genre tropes. There are plenty of authors writing to the market with me-too stories but there are a *lot* of idiosyncratic, labor of love stories that simply aren't commercial enough for tradpub.

HarryT · 11-20-2015, 09:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fjtorres

I don't see finding good Indie authors any different than finding good new authors. Period.

As I said, my technique of finding new SF authors is to buy monthly Baen bundles. That's how I've found almost all of the new authors I've read in the last 20 or so years. I'd welcome specific recommendations of how to find the gems amongst the flood of self-published garbage.

fjtorres · 11-20-2015, 09:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HarryT

How can I equally reliably find new authors that I'll enjoy in the world of self-published books?

How do you find non-BAEN titles?

Quote:

Originally Posted by HarryT

I'd welcome specific recommendations of how to find the gems amongst the flood of self-published garbage.

See, that last adjective is where we differ.
Yes, there is a flood of indie content coming to market. But a whole lot of it is reverted backlist. And a lot of it is simply not commercial enough to line the pockets of the BPH overlords. And lately a lot of savvy authors are simply not drinking the BPH hemlock-flavored koolaid and ramping up their careers "on their own".
And, yeah, a lot of it *is* crap, as Sturgeon said. But that also applies to tradpub titles.
Over-generalizing doesn't help your position, I fear.

Anyway.
For me, recommendations from friends and acquaintances tends to work pretty well.

FWIW, check out this author:

http://www.amazon.com/Sekhmet-Bed-Sh...8030688&sr=1-3

Tastes vary but I've enjoyed a couple of hers and I rather suspect the time period might interest you.
Maybe.

shalym · 11-20-2015, 10:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HarryT

As I said, my technique of finding new SF authors is to buy monthly Baen bundles. That's how I've found almost all of the new authors I've read in the last 20 or so years. I'd welcome specific recommendations of how to find the gems amongst the flood of self-published garbage.

Have you tried BookBub? http://www.bookbub.com Here's a link specific to Science Fiction: https://www.bookbub.com/ebook-deals/...fiction-ebooks

Shari

HarryT · 11-20-2015, 10:12 AM

Thanks, Shari - I'll take a look at that.

eschwartz · 11-20-2015, 11:58 AM

I've found lots of total crap in the self-publishing waters.

But I've also found a lot of total crap in the tradpub waters too.

self-pub outnumbers tradpub, so the self-pub crap easily outnumbers the tradpub crap.

I will admit to being lazy enough when it comes to both sides, that I usually prioritize authors whose books I have already read and enjoyed.
That does favor the tradpub side...

Cinisajoy · 11-20-2015, 12:26 PM

Ok you guys have got me totally confused.
Without doing an extensive search (ok technically scrolling way down on the Amazon page), how does one know a book is self published?
I just found a set of books that are published through Down Island Press. Are they self published or did they go through an actual publisher?

Or what about that one writer that had done a cookbook through either self publishing or a vanity press. She then took advantage of someone. She represented herself as a professional author to get his story so she could write a new version about his dog to hopefully make a movie. The catch was she told the guy she couldn't afford to pay him anything right now because of "costs". The book was not even proofread or edited. Yes, she put a publisher name on the book.
The reason I know about this is when I caught a very glaring error, I thought the guy it was about might not know about it so I tracked him down and called. We had a nice conversation.

So now is there an easy way to tell self-published from small press or vanity press or even the bigger publishers.
Heck if I didn't hang out in places about books I wouldn't know Baen and Tor were big.

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11-19-2015, 09:14 PM	#2
fjtorres Grand Sorcerer Posts: 11,732 Karma: 128354696 Join Date: May 2009 Location: 26 kly from Sgr A* Device: T100TA,PW2,PRS-T1,KT,FireHD 8.9,K2, PB360,BeBook One,Axim51v,TC1000	You can see that reflected in the author earnings reports. http://authorearnings.com/wp-content...unit-sales.png Just consider that the main reason the big five's share appears to be growing is because they are buying other publishers and their share. However, if you look at the pre-acquisition market shares there is a net decline in the BPH share. Also, because Nielsen, AAP, and other outfits measure share in dollar terms and BPH prices have long been going up steadily. And not just on the ebook side. If you look at their recent reports they have stopped reporting mass market paperback sales (after years of reporting constant declines) and are instead reporting "paperback" numbers with slight increases as they reduce the number of books released as mmpb and shift those titles to the more expensive trade paperback format, a form of stealth price hike practiced by tradpubs big and small. The tradpub side of the business is undergoing consolidation and has been since Bertelsmann bought Doubleday. And it will continue consolidating as the multinationals try to buy market share to prop up their quarterly financial at all costs. The main cost being less unit sales from their side of the industry and more by the smaller, more agile publishers both Indie and tradpub. There is a war going on in publishing but it's not tradpub vs Indie: it is multinationals versus everybody else, publishers, authors, and readers.

11-20-2015, 12:03 AM	#3
Phogg PHD in Horribleness Posts: 2,320 Karma: 23599604 Join Date: Dec 2008 Location: In the ironbound section, near avenue L Device: Just a whole bunch. I guess I am a collector now.	I find it humorous that the big five have to pretend that self publishing is related to them...in order to manufacture an appearance of continuing relevancy. And that the Authors Guild has buckled under unrelenting mockery and is beginning to denounce portions of the standard big five contracts. Times are hard. And the cliff looming down the road? I have talked to genre writers who's greatest wish is to be read. In the not too distant future we will be seeing works left to the public domain when writers die. How many remains to be seen, but I see zip that the legacy publishers can do to stem that tide if it catches on on even a moderate scale. I don't see the multinationals trying to prop up an obsolete market forever.

11-20-2015, 09:42 AM	#9
fjtorres Grand Sorcerer Posts: 11,732 Karma: 128354696 Join Date: May 2009 Location: 26 kly from Sgr A* Device: T100TA,PW2,PRS-T1,KT,FireHD 8.9,K2, PB360,BeBook One,Axim51v,TC1000	I'm also a regular at BAEN but I do check out Indie SF&F titles regularly. I happen to enjoy superhero fantasy and I've found several good authors mining that territory. I don't see finding good Indie authors any different than finding good new authors. Period. I haven't found that the path the book takes to market says nothing about the author or the story. A good story is a good story. What I have found is that Indie SF&F tends to explore further afield than the BPH imprints and do less pigeonhole cookie cutter stuff. Lots of quirky takes on genre tropes. There are plenty of authors writing to the market with me-too stories but there are a lot of idiosyncratic, labor of love stories that simply aren't commercial enough for tradpub.

11-20-2015, 10:12 AM	#13
HarryT eBook Enthusiast Posts: 85,544 Karma: 93383043 Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: UK Device: Kindle Oasis 2, iPad Pro 10.5", iPhone 6	Thanks, Shari - I'll take a look at that.

11-20-2015, 11:58 AM	#14
eschwartz Ex-Helpdesk Junkie Posts: 19,421 Karma: 85397180 Join Date: Nov 2012 Location: The Beaten Path, USA, Roundworld, This Side of Infinity Device: Kindle Touch fw5.3.7 (Wifi only)	I've found lots of total crap in the self-publishing waters. But I've also found a lot of total crap in the tradpub waters too. self-pub outnumbers tradpub, so the self-pub crap easily outnumbers the tradpub crap. I will admit to being lazy enough when it comes to both sides, that I usually prioritize authors whose books I have already read and enjoyed. That does favor the tradpub side...

11-20-2015, 12:26 PM	#15
Cinisajoy Just a Yellow Smiley. Posts: 19,161 Karma: 83862859 Join Date: Jul 2015 Location: Texas Device: K4, K5, fire, kobo, galaxy	Ok you guys have got me totally confused. Without doing an extensive search (ok technically scrolling way down on the Amazon page), how does one know a book is self published? I just found a set of books that are published through Down Island Press. Are they self published or did they go through an actual publisher? Or what about that one writer that had done a cookbook through either self publishing or a vanity press. She then took advantage of someone. She represented herself as a professional author to get his story so she could write a new version about his dog to hopefully make a movie. The catch was she told the guy she couldn't afford to pay him anything right now because of "costs". The book was not even proofread or edited. Yes, she put a publisher name on the book. The reason I know about this is when I caught a very glaring error, I thought the guy it was about might not know about it so I tracked him down and called. We had a nice conversation. So now is there an easy way to tell self-published from small press or vanity press or even the bigger publishers. Heck if I didn't hang out in places about books I wouldn't know Baen and Tor were big.

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